A Call for a Multi-Institution Collaboration to Improve the MCC Recurrence Risk Calculator

Background & Significance

The MC3 Institute is seeking collaborators for a multi-center study aimed at validating and improving the Merkel Cell Carcinoma (MCC) recurrence risk calculator [1]. 

MCC recurs in 40% of patients. While staging is commonly used to predict recurrence, additional factors, such as sex, immunosuppression, age, site of primary tumor, and time since diagnosis, can provide a significantly more precise risk estimate. 

Aubriana McEvoy, MD, MS, from Washington University in St. Louis, led the development of the first MCC recurrence risk calculator, which is now readily available at merkelcell.org/recur.

This personalized, web-based tool estimates an individual’s recurrence risk and provides an accurate estimate of ‘remaining’ risk, because MCC recurrence risk falls rapidly over 1-3 year after diagnosis. It helps clinicians educate patients, refine surveillance strategies, and guide treatment decisions. However, this model is currently based on data from a single institution in Seattle. 

Proposal

By incorporating data from multiple institutions and adding the patient’s tumor viral status we can further enhance the accuracy and reliability of this tool, ultimately improving patient care. 

We are looking for institutions willing to share de-identified patient data: MCC diagnosis, risk factors, and recurrence information. 

Collaborate

If your institution is potentially interested in contributing data, or if you would like to learn more about logistics (HIPAA, IRB, and data sharing agreements), please contact Aubriana McEvoy at amcevoy@wustl.edu. 

We look forward to hearing from you! 

1. McEvoy AM, Hippe DS, Lachance K, et al. Merkel cell carcinoma recurrence risk estimation is improved by integrating factors beyond cancer stage: A multivariable model and web-based calculator. J Am Acad Dermatol. 2024;90(3):569-576. doi:10.1016/j.jaad.2023.11.020